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Source: Rabobank news release
Despite positive profits in 2024, herd expansion remains slow, with slight production increases in China, Brazil, and Mexico and decreases in the EU and the US. Sustained profitability will be crucial for attracting investment in 2025. According to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein for RaboResearch, favorable production conditions are anticipated. Manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health are expected to support stable global pork supply, which is forecast to grow by less than 1% this year. Regional supply and demand balances vary, with sufficient supply in the US, China, and Brazil, and tighter supply in the EU, Japan, and the Philippines.
Competitive prices boost pork consumption
Pork prices underperformed in 2024 compared to other meats. “Lower feed costs and enhanced productivity have made pork more competitive, a trend likely to continue in 2025,” says Pan. “Pork is well-positioned due to its reasonable pricing and availability, especially as beef prices remain high and poultry demand strong.” Pork demand is expected to rise in North America and Brazil, where beef supply is tight. Europe may experience seasonal price increases, while Asia sees price fluctuations, with downward pressure in China and South Korea, but strong prices in Japan and Southeast Asia.
Global trade faces high uncertainty
Mixed global import trends in 2024, with a decline in China and growth elsewhere, set the stage for 2025, when President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could significantly impact trade flows. “High tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada may lead to retaliatory measures affecting agricultural goods, including pork,” explains Pan.
Additionally, geopolitical factors like a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire add uncertainty to grain prices, influencing pork production costs. Disease outbreaks, such as the recent foot and mouth disease outbreak in Germany, further complicate the trade landscape. In such a volatile market, participants along the supply chain may increase their focus on risk mitigation.
Technological innovation to address challenges
Animal disease outbreaks, including African swine fever and porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv), continue to challenge production and exports. The pork industry and governments are investing in solutions like vaccination, biosecurity, and animal health products.
At the same time, sustainability and animal welfare concerns are also driving the need for innovation. Investments in technology, including automation, digitalization, and AI, are increasing. Many large-scale farms are already using sensors for disease diagnosis and monitoring. These technologies aim to enhance biosecurity, disease prevention, and productivity, positioning the industry for future growth.
