by Keith Good, University of Illinois’ FarmDoc project
Reuters writers Naveen Thukral and Dominique Patton reported yesterday that, “China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year, trading sources say, with rain damage to its crop and worries over dry weather in exporting nations fuelling Beijing’s appetite to buy while prices are low.
“Traders said China’s frantic buying is likely to support global prices, which have dropped more than a quarter this year – based on the Chicago futures benchmark price – amid abundant supplies from top exporter Russia.”
The Reuters article explained that, “The world’s biggest wheat producer and consumer, China bought around two million metric tons of new-crop Australian wheat in October, for shipments starting in December, trading sources told Reuters. It has also booked about 2.5 million metric tons of French wheat since September, for December-March shipment, they said, noting these were unusually large volumes for this time of year.
Overall, China’s 2023 imports are likely to reach around 12 million tons, two Singapore-based traders said, topping 2022’s record 9.96 million tons, and the avid buying is expected to continue into 2024.
Thukral and Patton added that, “China’s January-September wheat imports jumped 53.6% to 10.17 million metric tons, customs data showed, including 6.4 million tons from Australia and 1.8 million tons from Canada. Those figures don’t reflect orders made for future delivery, such as recent purchases of U.S. soft red winter wheat.
“Beijing’s heavy buying from Australia could force rival importers such as Indonesia and Japan to seek alternatives from North America and the Black Sea region, traders said.”
A recent USDA transportation report pointed out that, “China was the fifth-largest importer of U.S wheat in MY 2022-23, accounting for 7 percent of total U.S. wheat shipments for that year.”
