 |
|---|
by Bruce Blythe, Senior Editor, Commodities, Farm Futures
Corn futures plunged to the lowest levels since August after USDA stunned the market by boosting its estimate for the 2025 U.S. crop above 17 billion bushels for the first time, signaling a heavy supply outlook that likely will burden prices this year even amid record demand. Soybean futures also tumbled after USDA held its yield figure steady.
Last year’s U.S. corn crop averaged a record 186.5 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from a previous estimate, according to USDA’s annual Crop Production Annual Summary released today. The average marked a 4% improvement over 179.3 bpa in 2024 and clashed with trade expectations for a downward revision of about 2 bpa.
USDA also raised harvested acreage 1.3 million acres to 91.3 million acres, resulting a U.S. crop totaling an all-time high 17.021 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from USDA’s previous estimate in November and up over 2 billion bushels, or 14%, from 2024. USDA also raised its forecast for U.S. corn stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 198 million bushels to 2.227 billion bushels, a seven-year high.
“Very surprising numbers today… and very ugly for corn,” said Jon Prischmann of Blue Creek Commodities and Hedging LLC in Fergus Falls, Minnesota. Heavy supplies and slumping prices “will make hedging going into summer very difficult for the rest of old crop and also new-crop December 2026,” he said.
In late trading, March corn tumbled 25 cents at $4.2075 per bushel after earlier touching $4.2025, the contract’s lowest intraday price since mid-August. March soybeans sank 14.5 cents to $10.48, while March SRW wheat dropped 7.25 cents to $5.10.
 |
|---|
USDA hikes soybean stocks, slashes exports
USDA’s unexpectedly bearish numbers for both corn and soybeans pose further challenges for U.S. farmers already squeezed by three years of weak crop prices and high costs for fertilizer and other inputs. The abundant supply outlook likely will keep grain prices under pressure, further dimming profit prospects in 2026 and throwing greater uncertainty into spring planting decisions.
The corn production boost reflected several factors. In addition to the harvested acreage increase, USDA also hiked 2025 plantings by 60,000 acres to 97.788 million acres, the highest in nearly 90 years. Since July, USDA’s harvested acreage estimate has surged 4.5 million acres, the agency said today. USDA also raised average yields for a few top Midwest states, including Indiana and Minnesota.
To read the entire report click here.
