By Bernt Nelson and Faith Parum, Economists, American Farm Bureau Federation
USDA’s September 2025 net farm income forecast, released Sept. 3, projects net farm income will rise sharply from 2024. While stronger performance in some sectors is a factor in the increase, much of it is tied to continued support from government disaster assistance.
The report points to some improvements in the farm economy, particularly for livestock producers who are expected to see notable gains in receipts and profitability, but elevated costs for labor, taxes and inputs, combined with weaker crop receipts, remain significant challenges for many farmers.
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Overall, USDA’s September 2025 net farm income forecast projects a mixed outlook for farmers. Net farm income, a key measure of profitability, is forecast at $179.8 billion in 2025. This is an increase of $52 billion, or 40.7%, from $127.8 billion in 2024, but about $300 million lower than USDA’s February forecast of $180.1 billion. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is expected to rise $48.8 billion, or 37.2%, from 2024 to 2025. Net cash farm income is forecast to increase $36.5 billion, or 25.3%, over the same period.
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In addition to revising February 2025 estimates, USDA also updated prior-year figures. The 2024 net farm income estimate was lowered from $139.1 billion to $127.8 billion, an 8.1% drop. The reduction was driven by declines in crop receipts, crop inventories and animal receipts, along with higher production expenses. These were partially offset by slight increases in government payments and animal inventories. In total, the 2024 estimate fell by $11.3 billion.
Cash Receipts
Crops
Cash receipts from crop sales are forecasted to decrease by $6.1 billion, or 2.5%, from $242.7 billion in 2024 to $236.6 billion in 2025. USDA lowered its crop cash receipts projection by $17 billion from the $253.6 billion forecast in February 2025. If this forecast is realized, this would be the lowest cash receipts for crop sales since 2007.
Corn
Corn receipts are expected to fall $2.3 billion, or 3.7%, from $63.4 billion in 2024 to $61 billion in 2025. The projected decline in receipts demonstrates how lower prices are outweighing the record corn crop forecast in USDA’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Soybeans
Cash soybean receipts are forecast to drop by $3.4 billion, or 7.2%, from $46.8 billion in 2024 to $43.5 billion in 2025. The projected decrease reflects lower production as acres shifted to corn and weaker prices driven by ample global supplies.
Wheat
Cash receipts for wheat are forecast to fall $1.1 billion, or 9.8%, from $11.2 billion in 2024 to $10.1 billion in 2025. The decline reflects both lower prices and reduced sales volumes.
Hay and Other Crops
Cash receipts for hay were forecast to fall $207 million, or 2.4%, from $8.29 billion in 2024 to $8.09 billion in 2025, mostly due to increased supplies. Cash receipts from cotton were left unchanged from 2024 at $5.3 billion. While receipts for vegetables and melons fell by $500 million, or 2.1%, from $25.3 billion in 2024 to $24.8 billion in 2025. Fruits and nuts were the only major U.S. crop category that saw a rise in cash receipts. USDA forecast cash receipts for fruits and tree nuts to grow by $2 billion, or 6.5%, from $31.3 billion in 2024 to $33.4 billion in 2025.
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Animals and Animal Products
Total animal/animal product cash receipts are forecast to increase by $30 billion, or 11.2%, from $268.6 billion in 2024 to $298.6 billion in 2025. Receipts for all major animal/animal products are expected to grow mostly from higher prices. If realized, this would be a record high for cash receipts from animals and animal products.
Cattle and Calves
Cash receipts for cattle and calves had the largest increase, reflecting record cattle prices from tight supplies and strong demand. Cash receipts for cattle and calves are forecast to rise by $17.6 billion, or 16%, from $112.1 billion in 2024 to $129.7 billion in 2025. If this forecast is realized, it would be a record high for cash receipts for cattle and calves.
Hogs
After several years of challenges, including some of the worst losses in history in 2023, hog farmers are expected to experience some recovery in profitability. Cash receipts from hogs are forecast to grow by $2.6 billion, or 9.5%, from $27.3 billion in 2024 to $29.9 billion in 2025.
Poultry
Cash receipts for broilers (raised for meat), are expected to rise by $1.6 billion, or 2.5%, from $45.4 billion in 2024 to $47 billion in 2025. Cash receipts for eggs are also projected to increase in 2025 by $7.5 billion, or 35.4%, from $21 billion to $28.5 billion.
Dairy
Milk is the only major animal product with cash receipts forecast to fall with USDA estimating a $500 million, or 1%, drop, from $50.7 billion in 2024 to $50.2 billion in 2025.
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