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by Michael Langemeier and James Mintert, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
West Lafayette, IN — Farmer sentiment in May climbed to its highest level since May 2021 as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index reached 158, 10 points higher than in April. Farmers were more optimistic about both current conditions and their expectations for the future as the Current Conditions Index improved by 5 points to 146 and the Future Expectations Index jumped 12 points to 164. Key reasons behind the sentiment improvement were a much more optimistic view of U.S. agricultural export prospects, combined with a less negative view of tariffs’ impact on 2025 farm income than respondents provided in either March or April.
The May barometer survey took place from May 12-16, 2025.
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To learn more about U.S. producers’ views on trade, the May survey repeated a question that was first posed in barometer surveys in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked if they “Strongly Disagree”, “Disagree,” “Agree,” or “Strongly Agree” with the following statement: “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.”
In fall 2020, an average of 49% of respondents chose “Strongly Agree” with the free trade statement. This stands in sharp contrast to the results from this month’s survey, in which only 28% of respondents chose “Strongly Agree.” Responses to a question previously posed in the barometer’s March and April surveys provide additional evidence that producers’ views on trade have shifted.
Producers were asked about the expected impact of the U.S.’s tariff policy on their farms’ income in 2025. In March and April, 57% and 56% of respondents, respectively, said they expected tariffs to have a “Negative” or “Very Negative” impact on their farm’s income. In May, this percentage fell to 43%, while the percentage expecting “No Impact” rose to 30%, compared to 19% and 22% in March and April, respectively.
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