Feed & Grain reports:
The International Grains Council (IGC) released its Grain Market Report on May 23, 2024, highlighting key changes in global grain production and trade forecasts. The report shows a reduction in the forecast for world total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) for 2023/24, now at 2,297 million metric tons (mmt), down by 4 mmt month-on-month (m/m). This decrease is primarily due to lower estimates for sorghum and barley. Despite increased carry-ins cushioning the supply outlook, carryover stocks are cut by 3 mmt to 588 mmt.
The forecast for global grain trade in 2023/24 is raised by 8 mmt, driven by larger wheat and maize flows. However, the projection for global grains production in 2024/25 is revised down by 10 mmt to 2,312 mmt, reflecting declines in maize (notably in Argentina and sub-Saharan Africa) and wheat (in Russia, Ukraine, and the US). Consequently, closing stocks are expected to drop by 12 mmt to 580 mmt.
Key points from the report include:
Soybeans: World soybean trade in 2023/24 is projected to increase by 2 mmt m/m, with 2024/25 global output forecasted 1 mmt higher. Inventories are raised by about 3 mmt, and trade is expected to reach an all-time peak of 172.2 mmt (+2%).
Rice: Global rice production for 2023/24 is revised up by 3 mmt, leading to higher consumption and aggregate stocks. In 2024/25, rice production is projected at a record 523 mmt (+2%). Trade is expected to rise slightly in 2025 due to increased demand from Asian and African buyers.
Lentils: Global lentils production is anticipated to recover in 2024/25, especially with a larger crop in Canada. Trade in all pulses in 2024 is forecast at 21.2 mmt, down 5% year-on-year (y/y).
To read the entire report click here.
