by Bob Trogele and James C. Sulecki as it appeared in AgriBusiness Global
Willoughby, OH — Since 2020, we’ve developed a forecast of key events likely to impact global agriculture and agribusiness in the year ahead and beyond. We focus on major events likely to have the most impact on agribusiness.
So now what’s ahead for 2026?
Here are our nine key predictions for global agriculture and agribusiness for the coming year.
1. Agroindustry stagflation continues into 2026
We made this prediction for 2025, and now with some dismay we expect stagflation to continue into 2026. Globally the commodity market continues to be beset by overproduction: high grain inventory, oversupply of tree crops and vegetables, and lack of premiums for organic production.
Flat global demand in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific nations is being driven by aging, shrinking populations, and in the U.S. particularly food consumption likely will be impacted by increasing use of obesity drugs and the Trump administrations Make America Healthy Again program.
2. Input prices likely will be flat to increasing as suppliers compete for farm purchases
We’re in an era of international tumult. We see global tariffs and the resulting retaliation against tariffs causing short-term volatility in input prices, then settling down to some measure of adaptation in the medium term. Blunting these effects somewhat will be government subsidies, which in the U.S. could be in the neighborhood of $40 billion to $60 billion.
3. China’s economy continues to be challenged
China’s enormous pesticide manufacturing capacity continues to drive margin erosion globally. While this is positive for end users of crop inputs, profitability for the supply channel remains challenging. Lower margins make the distribution channel’s reinvestment in technology and services that much more difficult, and certain markets will need further restructuring or reengineering.
4. Energy outlook remains positive, except in areas where political taxes play a role
Global agriculture runs on energy. Continued supply-side policies in the U.S. and the Middle East are keeping energy prices stable and attractive, and helping to maintain a lower but stable value of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, China as a major consumer of energy has hedged its bet on the future by investing in all energy types from fossil to alternative while also upping their inventory of strategic oil. For its part, Western Europe will continue to need to adapt, possibly by ramping up its nuclear capacity.
5. South America is a two-sided coin in 2026
A key question, as always in this region, is Brazil. Will it recover from high interest rates and inflation that have caused major defaults in agribusiness sector, which accounts for about 25%-30% of its overall GDP? What will struggling input suppliers there do, as many are retreating. For instance, Nutrien divested some of its fertilizer blending plants in Brazil to focus on its core retail and tech businesses. Argentina on the other hand may experience an agricultural renaissance with U.S. financial support and under the political and economic leadership of President Javier Milei.
6. The cost of money is a positive tailwind
As the U.S. economy goes, so goes the cost of money globally. Lower interest rates in the U.S. should drive a lower-but-stable value of the dollar, giving agribusiness predictability in regard to capital investments, inventory levels, and trading of commodities.
7. Technology: The future bodes well for integrated technology packages for farmers
There are admittedly some headwinds here. Cybercrime continues to be a threat, leading to disruptive risks and costs overall to agribusiness. A major cyberattack could cripple key areas including trading platforms, logistics networks, and agro-processing. At the same time, solutions for soil health continue to be needed to adapt farmland to new climate change, the high nutritional needs of improved germplasms, and sustainable long-term equity value for multi-generational farm families.
8. Where to Invest: Full-service, full-gamut solutions
Biorationals seem to be the key growth segment, yet government regulation lags in process and direction. While biorational technology is improving, startup and small companies dating to circa 2000 continue to compete with one another, causing confusion and skepticism at the farmgate. Mature agribusiness channels also struggle with overhead and margins and are being disrupted by smart business models. To this sector’s favor is improving germplasm as biological breeding continues to become less capital-intensive.
9. Realignment of supply chains
If tariffs or regulations shift and suddenly are imposed short-term or mid-season, producers will not be able to adjust their planting and/or harvesting decisions and capital investments, which will magnify their losses. Agribusinesses will see losses in export market shifts and potentially higher costs, i.e., in crop inputs. As a consequence producers will become more dependent on government supports.
To read the entire article and action plans for each forecast click here.
