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by Michael Langemeier and James Mintert, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
West Lafayette, IN — U.S. agricultural producer sentiment changed little in September as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading of 126 was just one point higher than a month earlier. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future.
Producers’ perceptions of current conditions on their farms weakened as the Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122. At the same time, farmers in September were a bit more optimistic about the future than in August, as the Index of Future Expectations rose 5 points to 128. This month’s survey was conducted the week following USDA’s release of the September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports.
The USDA reports confirmed expectations for record-high corn and soybean yields and, correspondingly, weak prices for both crops, which contributed to farmers’ weaker perceptions of current conditions. Expectations for the future were buttressed by producers’ perception that U.S. policy is “headed in the right direction” and by rising expectations that a program similar to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP) will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices.
The September barometer survey took place from September 15-19, 2025.
One factor that appears to be influencing farmer sentiment is farmers’ perspectives on the multitude of policy changes implemented in the U.S. in 2025. For example, a substantial majority (71%) of U.S. farmers in this month’s survey reported that things in the U.S. today are “headed in the right direction.” This month’s results were similar to those obtained in the July and August barometer surveys, when 74% and 69% of respondents, respectively, chose “right direction.”
However, when asked specifically about whether they expect the increased use of tariffs to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy, just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. That’s down from 63% of June’s survey respondents and 70% of respondents in both the April and May surveys who said they expect the use of tariffs to have a long-run positive impact.
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Moreover, in September, 30% of respondents said they think the U.S. tariff policy will weaken the agricultural economy, up from 22% who felt that way in April and May. More than twice as many respondents in September (19%) said they were uncertain about the impact of tariffs on the agricultural economy, compared to April and May, when just 8% of respondents said they were uncertain about the impact.
Concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. agricultural economy are being offset by expectations among farmers that a program similar to the 2019 MFP will help compensate farmers for lower commodity prices. Eighty-three percent of respondents said they think that an MFP-style program is either likely (21%) or very likely (62%) if a trade war leads to lower prices for U.S. agricultural products.
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Wrapping Up
Current conditions are weakening on U.S. farms, with weakness focused on crop farms. Farmers expect weaker financial performance in 2025 than in 2024, and fewer farmers this month said they expect farmland values to rise in the year ahead than in previous surveys this year.
Weakness in the farm financial outlook spilled over into a weaker capital investment outlook by producers in September. Although producers in September were less confident that the use of tariffs by the U.S. will prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run than they were earlier this year, a large majority of producers still say that things in the U.S. are “headed in the right direction.”
Finally, over 80 percent of producers think it’s likely or very likely that, in the event that a trade war negatively impacts commodity prices, a program similar to 2019’s MFP will help compensate for agricultural product price weakness.
To read the entire report click here.
