by John Volk, Brakke Consulting group
Last week’s newsletter contained an announcement about Brown Food’s UnReal Milk, lab-made whole cow milk. It may be instructive to review the status of plant-based meat.
When introduced, plant-based meat was viewed as a major disruptor of the meat industry. Companies claimed it would displace animal protein in the not-too-distant future — a major threat to the livestock and poultry industries. BeyondMeat went public in 2019 and soon hit a high of $239.
Sales of plant-based meat substitutes climbed to $1.3 billion in 2020 with forecasts to hit $10 billion or even $20 billion within a few years. It didn’t pan out that way. Category sales have been plummeting and today are probably under $500 million. BeyondMeat stock hovers around $3. Many stock analysts have stopped covering the company and the sector.
What happened?
It turns out that it costs a lot more to manufacture plant-based meat than to produce beef, pork and chicken. Non-meat meat also created complications for fast food restaurants because of the need to inventory and serve a completely different, additional line of burger and nugget products.
And ersatz meat really isn’t healthier. The protein is lower in quality, the products are higher in sodium, and calories are similar. Perhaps even more important, manufacturers haven’t been able to match the umami, or savoriness, of meat.
So the products are pretty much relegated to the vegan and vegetarian segments of the market, which are tiny.
Consequently, the animal health industry doesn’t have to worry about cattle, swine and chicken production declining after all.
