by Mark White, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois
In mid-March, the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program released the Vintage 2024 county population estimates.[1] Not only do these estimates show which counties gained or lost population, but they also show the extent to which this population change occurred through natural change (births minus deaths) and migration (domestic and international). These demographic trends can explain much about an area’s economic trajectory. Among other things, significant population loss can lead to declining property values, fewer businesses, and diminished tax bases. Conversely, growing populations can generate new business and work opportunities, greater demand for housing, and a stronger local tax base.
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted many demographic trends and contributed to higher mortality rates and more limited mobility and migration (White, 2022). This brief focuses on population trends that occurred over the two-year period between 2022 and 2024. It specifically focuses on trends in the 12-state North Central region, and highlights the various population trends that occurred between counties with different economic characteristics and levels of urbanization. [2] It should also be noted that for the Vintage 2024 estimates the U.S. Census Bureau adopted a new method for estimating international migration.[3] Consequently, these estimates better reflect the contributions of international migration to population growth than previous estimates.
The North Central region remains one of the slowest growing parts of the country
Between 2022 and 2024, the U.S. population grew 0.9% annually. The fastest population growth occurred in parts of the South (e.g., Florida, Texas) and the West–especially in many parts of the Intermountain West (e.g., Utah, Nevada, Idaho). The Northeast (particularly NY and PA) and the North Central regions were among the country’s slower growing regions. The North Central region grew 0.5% annually between 2022 and 2024, a rate similar to the Northeast. The North Central region’s three largest states–Illinois (0.4%), Ohio (0.5%), and Michigan (0.5%)–were also among its slowest growing states during this period. The only North Central state that grew faster than the nation–North Dakota (1.0%)–was also the smallest.
Despite the trends, Figure 1 shows that there is great variation both between states, but also within states. Some of the most rapid growth occurred along the coasts and in many of the Sun Belt’s urban areas. By contrast, traditionally disadvantaged regions such as Central Appalachia, the Southern Black Belt, the Mississippi Delta, and parts of the Great Plains experienced the greatest population loss during this two-year period.
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