by Jacqueline Holland, Grain market analyst, Farm Futures magazine
U.S. farmers might plant less corn than last year, but it will likely still be larger than what previous USDA forecasts have indicated, according to new survey data from the March 2024 Farm Futures grower survey.
In fact, total corn and soybean acreage will likely vary minimally from last year based on the survey findings. Growers expect to plant 92.4 million acres of corn in the upcoming weeks, down 2.3 million acres (2.4%) from year ago seedings. Soybean acreage is forecast to be 2.4 million acres (2.9%) higher than last year at 86.0 million acres. This represents a nearly one-for-one trade off between corn and soybean acres from last year.
Farm Futures surveyed producers between March 12 -17, 2024 on their 2024 acreage intentions. The survey was conducted via an email questionnaire and garnered 493 responses.
If realized, that would bring the total corn and soybean acreage planted in 2024 to 178.6 million acres or the third largest combined corn-soybean acreage on record. Last year, farmers planted 178.2 million acres of corn and soybeans, which currently stands as the third largest combined acreage.
Growers are still anticipating USDA to find more winter wheat acreage planted relative to last year, with survey respondents estimating 38.4 million acres of winter wheat will be reported in next Thursday’s Prospective Plantings report from USDA. However, farmers are less convinced that other spring wheat acres will see an uptick in the report.
Related:2024 acreage battle: A game of marginal shifts
Despite drought conditions still plaguing parts of the Plains, farmers opted for fewer 2024 sorghum acres in the Farm Futures survey. With farmers still bullish on winter wheat acreage expansion in 2024, this could mean those acres in the High Plains that were planted to sorghum amid dry conditions last spring could have been returned to winter wheat thanks to replenished soil moisture over the past ten months.
Farm Futures survey respondents also hinted at a 15% uptick in alfalfa plantings for hay this spring. Hay stocks through December 1, 2023 stood at 76.7 million tons, which is substantial progress from the prior year’s 68-year low for domestic hay supplies.
But lingering drought on the Plains continues to keep U.S. hay supplies at levels not experienced since the 1950s and could warrant an uptick in acreage allocated to hay production during the 2024 growing season, especially if profit opportunities for corn are scarce this year.
Growers in the Farm Futures March 2024 survey also expect a 9% increase in acreage for other crops this spring. The “other” category could include oilseeds, edible beans, and small grains – among others – and could potentially drive corn and soybean acreages towards more lucrative returns this spring.
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