By Tyne Morgan, Farm Journal
After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists’ views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.
“The biggest takeaway I see out of the Monthly Monitor this month is we’re seeing a lot more positives than we’ve seen for the last couple of months,” says Scott Brown, the interim director for the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri, who also helps author the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is conducted by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal each month, as it’s a way to gauge not only the state of the ag economy but also explore the impacts of policy and trade. Brown says as commodity prices have seen some momentum, outlooks among economists are also shifting more positively for 2024.
“I think when you look at where we are in terms of our estimates for crop prices, and we’re talking about crop prices for harvest next fall at this point, we saw a number of more positive responses, maybe the most positivity since we started our estimates for 2024/2025. As both corn and soybeans continue to move higher, there’s more positive news this month,” Brown adds.
Spike in 2024 Net Farm Income Forecasts
That positivity also boosted net farm income estimates. The November Monthly Monitor asked ag economists to provide their outlook for net farm income in 2024. The survey found ag economists now expect a big spike in net farm income forecasts for the new year.
“Farm income estimates were raised almost $5 billion for 2024, relative to what they would have said in October,” Brown says. “And I think that just resonates as you look at higher estimates of corn prices and higher estimates of soybean prices, things just look a little better than where we were a couple of months ago.”
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