Feed & Grain magazine reports:
The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service recently reported that China imported a record 37.8 million tons of major feed grains between October 2023 and May 2024. This nearly doubled the volume from the same period the previous year, driven by significant discounts on imported grains, particularly at South China ports.
Surge in corn imports
Corn imports during this period reached 20.7 million tons, with Brazil supplying 14.8 million tons. Brazil’s competitive pricing, attributed to a bountiful harvest, has made it an attractive source for China. Despite large domestic corn supplies, Brazilian corn was priced at $285 per ton compared to $348 per ton for local Chinese corn as of late June 2024. The remaining 5.9 million tons of corn were sourced primarily from the United States and Ukraine. Notably, U.S. corn exports to China were the lowest since the 2019/20 period, totaling 2.1 million tons.
Future outlook
Looking ahead to 2024/25, China’s imports of major feed grains are expected to soften due to smaller crop yields in the European Union, Canada, and Australia, reducing barley imports. Additionally, lower sorghum acreage in the United States is anticipated to temper growth in sorghum imports. Combined with sufficient corn supplies and larger domestic production, overall feed grain imports are projected to decrease next year.
Wheat and rice markets
U.S. wheat prices have declined due to the ongoing winter wheat harvest and larger-than-anticipated carry-in stocks. Globally, wheat prices from major exporters like Russia, the European Union, Argentina, and Canada have also dropped due to harvest pressures and improved crop conditions.
In the rice market, global production, exports, and consumption are forecasted to increase, driven by a larger crop in Pakistan. Import forecasts are higher for Malaysia and Cรดte d’Ivoire, while ending stocks are also up due to increased supplies in Malaysia and Pakistan.
