U.S. Farmer Sentiment Stable As Inflation Expectations Subside

by James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

U.S. farmers’ sentiment changed very little in December compared to the preceding month. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a reading of 114, just one point lower than a month earlier.

Both sub-indices of the barometer, the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations, also fell one point below their respective November readings. The Current Conditions Index for December was 112, while the Future Expectations Index was 115. All three indices were weaker than in December 2022, with the Ag Economy Barometer falling 10% below a year earlier.

Additionally, the current and future indices were 17% and 6%, respectively, below last year. Looking ahead to 2024, U.S. farmers inflation expectations are markedly lower than they were at the start of 2023.

The December Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from December 4-8, 2023.

High input costs continue to be the primary source of concern for U.S. farmers.

However, over the course of the year, there was a marked shift regarding producers’ apprehensions. In January, only 16% of farmers in the barometer survey pointed to the risk of “lower crop and/or livestock prices” as one of their biggest concerns. This changed as 2023 unfolded, and by December, just over one-fourth of respondents (26%) said the risk of lower prices for crops and livestock was a big concern.

The other major concern for the upcoming year cited by producers was “rising interest rates,” chosen this month by 24% of survey respondents.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment bottomed out in September and recovered modestly this fall as the Ag Economy Barometer closed out the year with an index reading of 114. The sentiment improvement was driven primarily by farmers’ improved perception of current conditions on their farms as the Current Conditions Index rose 14% from September to December.

At year-end, U.S. farmers still pointed to input costs as their top concern for the year ahead, but the percentage of farmers choosing the risk of lower crop and/or livestock prices rose from just 16% in January to 26% in December. Inflation expectations among farmers moderated during 2023. Compared to a year earlier, far fewer producers expect inflation to exceed 6% in the new year, and a large majority look for inflation to average less than 4% in 2024.

Finally, in December, farmers expressed a somewhat more sanguine view of interest rates than they did in late 2022 with just over one-third of survey respondents indicating they expect prime interest rates to decline in 2024.

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